85% of lobbyists polled predicted a “No” vote while just 15% predicted “Yes”.
The respondents also predicted the final voting percentages, and a mean average of all predictions suggest that the industry believes that the “No” campaign will gain 53.65% of the vote, compared to Yes at 46.35%.
Lobbyists are remarkably more certain of the outcome than the Scottish public.
A YouGov survey for The Sun and The Times released yesterday had “No” on 52% and “Yes” on 48%, after excluding “don’t knows”.
Kevin Craig, Managing Director of PLMR, suggested that the status quo will change regardless of the outcome: “Whatever the result of the referendum, the political landscape in Scotland has changed forever, with increased legislative powers a certainty.”
Dickie Jukes, Managing Director of Grayling Public Affairs, noted that uncertainty will underpin many people’s decision: “There’ll be a large number of Scots who hold their noses while they do it, but in the end they’ll vote ‘No’ because the unknown is too big a risk.”
In-house respondents included CEOs, Public Affairs Directors and Communications Directors. Agency respondents included CEOs, MDs, Partners and Directors. 62 lobbying and public affairs professionals responded to the poll. The survey was conducted over 11th and 12th September.